Academy Awards: Deconstructed Predictions [updated]

Here’s those predictions from 2 February after the nominations were, announced – the cooler is stacked, and the snacks are in…after spending a few more days with the sniper sequence as part of a long term research project, I’m hoping The Hurt Locker scoop some awards, editing and direction should be a given, and I’d like Beltrami and Sanders to pip it for the score but we’ll see. After ten minutes of not-very-careful consideration and a nice cup of tea, here’s what I think will happen on Awards Day. There’s no science here, and I’ve cut nominations where the films passed me by.

Unusually, it’s not too far from what I would like to happen. Of course, I would like The Hurt Locker to pick up Best Pic and Best Director, but know the power of those (billion) dollar signs to thinking in the Academy.

Of course, I will be comparing to other pundits, and smugly check off any I get right on Awards day (and hide the many wrong predictions under a rug of pixels). Last year I recall getting three right and cursing a great deal at the television, both of which are indicative of the level of my insight/understanding into the complex business of show. Feel free to comment/bow down to this knowledge, but I’d advise against using it for spread betting purposes.

Actor in a Leading Role
* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”

Actor in a Supporting Role
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Actress in a Leading Role
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Actress in a Supporting Role
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”

Animated Feature Film
* “Up” Pete Docter

Art Direction
* “Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim

Cinematography
* “The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd

Costume Design
* “Nine” Colleen Atwood

Directing
* “Avatar” James Cameron

Film Editing
* “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis

Foreign Language Film
* “The White Ribbon” Germany

Music (Original Score)
* “Up” Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song)
* “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Best Picture
* “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

Sound Editing
* “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson

Sound Mixing
* “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett

Visual Effects
* “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

Writing (Original Screenplay)
* “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino

About Kingsley Marshall

Kingsley Marshall is Head of Film & Television at Falmouth University. He also works as a journalist, contributing film, music and video game criticism, features and reviews to Little White Lies, Shook and Big Screen magazines in the UK, Sabotage Times online and Magnetic overseas. He can be found on Twitter as @kingsleydc